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bunchanumbers said:
zorg1000 said:

What exactly makes you think all or most AAA publishers will shrink/fallout?

console sales numbers. They are not what they were last gen. It means that AAA publishers are doing different things to try to get more money. $50 season passes. Deluxe Digital bundles. Early Access style launches etc. There's already backlash to these things. Look at SF5. Eventually these techniques won't keep them in the green and the AAA publishers will end up contracting because of it.

Plus the vast majority of the gaming revenue is dependent on yearly franchises like Madden, Fifa, and CoD. Eventually franchise fatigue will end up drying up this well and the balloon will burst.

I dont think the data supports what you are saying, Shadow1980 has already gone over that in detail.

Why would FIFA/Madden all of a sudden drop in sales from being annual? They have been annual franchises for 20+ years, franchise fatigue would have already set in by now. If they start to have declines it would be due to other factors.

Ya games like Call of Duty or Assassins Creed could eventually decline (AC did quite a bit last year) but at the same time, we are seeing new massive franchises like Destiny & Watch Dogs offset those declines. Titanfall 2 could also offset the decline of Battlefield.

Bethesda Softworks seems to be bigger than ever with the success of Fallout 4 & the next mainline Elder Scrolls is surely going to sell huge, other games like Dishonored 2 & Doom have alot of potential for Bethesda.

Warner Bros has become a big player in just the last few years, last year for example saw Dying Light, Mortal Kombat X & Arkham Knight all surpass 5 million shipments.

Grand Theft Auto V is still selling crazy amounts for Take-Two and GTA6 will be huge. NBA also doing very well for them.

The point is EA/Activision/Ubisoft/Warner/Bethesda/Take-Two are not having any problems selling software.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.