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Basically Nintendo had a slightly better holiday than they expected.
In Japan they've been keeping production shipments low to avoid excess inventory.
Now they have a shortage and will need to ramp up production again which can take time and be costly.

Basically the Wii U isn't lighting the sales charts on fire in Japan so this is really the only explanation I can think of. It's the worst selling Nintendo console of all time there so theoretically there should be plenty of stock, seems like they just didn't produce enough. Especially when you look at their sales forecast and notice how close they are to hitting it. So it seems that they just produced exactly enough to hit their forecast, not expecting to exceed it. It does look like they may exceed their forecast, but probably not by much.