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VR becoming a hit won't do much to XBO, beyond where it's currently at. Sales for XBO have obviously been declining YoY which is why MS has so many huge promotion with insane bundles and discounts during the holidays to make sure numbers crack the positive line YoY when it's all said and done. It's unfortunate for MS, because the XBO actually turned out to be a good console with good games (although too many 360 sequels, but 2016 will aid that) once it's all said and done, but they shot themselves in the foot prior to even hitting the starting line.

If VR blows up, PS4 will obviously become even more successful and cross the 100m mark even faster than anticipated.

XBO will likely stay steady around the 8m - 10m annual sales for at least another year or 2 once they can release the XBO Slim for $249, which is more than likely happening this year since the new fabrication nodes are already being made by AMD, and the XBO already has tons of free space already. So 2016 should bring the XBO slim for $249, and bundles for $299 around September, then have even more discounted bundles for the holiday pushing them to the 10m mark IMO.

2017 will be a bit more of a struggle with the PS4 slim launching and dominating sales.

2018 will likely be the $199 XBO Super Slim (with cutbacks from non-essential parts).

And we'll likely hear about a XB4 in 2018 - 2019, with an expected launch for 2019, although it's possible they want another head-start and rush for 2018, but if they want maximum performance and power than 2020. And I think they're going with NVIDIA next go-round since they got burned on the AMD deal by being forced to go with either lower hardware, or much more expensive since Sony nabbed the prime candidate 7970m / R9 M290.

2018: Force Gen-9 early, performance around GTX 970.
2019: Standard Gen-9, performance around GTX 980 / 980 Ti.
2020: Maximize that $399 - $499 console launch performance : price ratio.