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It depends. It needs to be one of:

-Much better and more powerful.
-Much less expensive.
-Very different.
-Launch with a game no one can resist.

If they do one of those things, they can take the market. Wii was a combo of 2,3 and 4. If Nintendo does that again, I suggest they have some element of #1 too, or at least a reason for 3rd parties to get on board. The lack of major 3rd party titles in the end killed Wii and along with it, Nintendo's revival and market dominance.