Is it competing with the PS4/X1 directly? If so, then they have no chance.
The general public will never go for it when the PS4/X1 are extremely well established, will be sub $300 during the holiday, will have 3 years worth of all recent popular third party games and a thriving online network which many of their friends are already on. Why would they pick up an NX over that? Would the gamecube/Xbox OG done better if they arrived 3 years after the PS2? I think they would have done significantly worse.
Nintendo either have to go the blue ocean/gimmick route with a bold new selling point thats makes it desirable as secondary purchase, or try and succeed the PS4 and be an early competitor to the PS5, just as the PS1 was to the N64 or the Sega Master System was to the SNES.
If its one unified piece of hardware for both home console/Handheld (highly unlikely), then they'll outsell the X1 easily. Will at least manage 3DS+Wii U numbers.
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