I agree that Wii will last closer to 10 years - unless new competition enters the market that forces them to change earlier.
As it stands now - Sony has to keep the PS3 kicking for 10 years if they want to recoop loses and generate some half-decent profit.
MS - will almost certainly come last, but they can avoid the debacle of the Xbox if they keep the 360 around long enough to make up initial losses and make a half-decent profit - About 10 years would be nice, but I'd expect them to be the first to go 'next' gen again.
Nintendo - The PS3 & 360 are not hurting Wii sales despite better graphics and (according to gamers) better games. Nor will they hurt Wii even if and when they come down to the same price (but Nintendo can easily maintain price advantage anyway). So if the competition need 10 years to recoop/make profit why on Earth should Nintendo launch a new system in 5? What would they gain?
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