Like I said, exclusive bundles tend to work better for the lead platform. When a platform is trailing and doesn't have the mojo for the generation then exclusive stuff for multiplat games just aren't going to have the same effect.
If the Division is all Xb one has to give it a push in march then it won't be enough to give it the NPD win. Xb one one April 2015 partly because it was $50 cheaper and partly because of Batman AA special edition PS4 pre-orders. And it still only managed to sneak in a $10K win. Xb one won October because of Halo 5. Xb one hasn't won a single month because of the power of a 3rd party exclusivity deal. Though with Nov 2015 we'll never know what might have been because PS4 had by far the better 3rd party exclusivity deals. I think MS would need to perhaps make a move on hardware as well, drop the 1TB sku into the $349 price bracket and disestablish the 500GB sku, and sell it at a discount through March. If they did that along with the Division they would win March unless Sony had something similar planned.
“The fundamental cause of the trouble is that in the modern world the stupid are cocksure while the intelligent are full of doubt.” - Bertrand Russell
"When the power of love overcomes the love of power, the world will know peace."
Jimi Hendrix