I agree and disagree.
Agree: Launching a similar system to PS4 in 2016 would be suicide. If it is simply offering the Nintendo take on the PS4 experience, none of the One and 4 buyers will be tempted, and it will create little buzz.
Disagree: There are two options it can work. NX could be significantly MORE powerful than PS4. HBM, newer graphics, etc. A system powerful enough to compete, to some extent, with PS5 and provide a premium product over 4One. Tech heads and early adopters may have interest in this if it was done well. It would have to be expensive, but people will pay for the right product.
The other option is that it is Wii-like, and offers a new experience beyond power. It could match PS4 to enable multi-plats, but also offer something beyond. Depending on what this "new experience" is, the project could work. It just has to be fun and innovative. What I disagree on is that the product would then have to be focused on casuals. You say it would be be like Wii and thus not get Metroid Prime. Wii had Metroid Prime. And the most "mature" Zelda. And one of the finest 3D Marios. So NX being Wii-like does not mean it can't or won't have core games. Quite the opposite, appealing to core gamers with SMG, Z:TP, Prime 3 and the Virtual Console was a big part of Wii's success. Wii U failed much more in this regard than Wii, despite its attempts at being a more core console.
