PS4's already sold a good 80% better than PS3 had at this point in it's life, so I think the numbers for Uncharted 4 could reflect that level of growth compared to Naughty Dog's more recent releases.
ND are coming off of the back of the success of The Last of Us and the entire Uncharted series on PS3, the studio also has a larger name and level of prestige than they've ever had before.
I think 2.3M is easy, but I wouldn't be shocked if it was nearer to 3M.
I predict 2.5M for week one sales of Uncharted 4.