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Imnus on 09 January 2016
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DJEVOLVE said:
Imnus said:
Ttech. said:
Could be higher, I wonder how high it might sale at 199 and with a massive batch of AAAs titles.

You may be slightly underestimating.

I believe 2016 will be truly massive, Uncharted will be first sign of whats to come.

 

Yeah, I already pointed out a few posts above that these estimates are somewhat conservative, hence "at least 140 millions", given that in a really good year the PS4 sales could go as high as 25M and the momentum could be massive.

However I made this predictions only based on what we know now, there is some unknowns that could bring sales a lot higher, like VR catching on, a new mega franchise a la GTA appearing, etc.

 

Your prediction is impressive, only time can tell but one thing. When you write millions, you don't need the "S" at the end. It should be 140 Million or 140 Million Units. Million only needs to be plural if you're saying something like, "Millions of Ps4's are selling every year". Just wanted to help. I have grammar mistakes also but would rather them be corrected.

 

Thanks, that's gonna take some adjusting, given that I've been doing it like that for years and in Spanish (my native language) is millones (millions).

 

 

Shinobi-san said:
I think it all depends on what happens next year.

If the PS4 has a big year as you predict with ~21 million without a significant price cut then i think LTD numbers has an outside chance of reaching your LTD numbers.

Based on last gen, we saw a sharp decrease in sales once the new platforms came out, so we are not seeing that slow gradual slow down in sales as we did in the PS2 era. So i think your year 4, 5 and 6 estimates are too positive. If Sony releases a PS5 similar to the PS4, in year 5 or 6 then we will see a sharp decrease in sales for PS4. Especially if PS5 has a decent launch price.

 

The sharp decrease in sales once the new platforms came out is because the PS3 is still fucking $269.99, that's ridiculous against a $349.99 PS4, it hasn't even received a price-cut after PS4 release.

On the other hand the PS2 was $149.99 when the PS3 launched, the PS4 will be similar, it will be $199.99 when the PS5 launches. Though it probably be $149.99 at the lowest in it's life instead of $99.99 for the PS2, so the momentum should be less like I already took in account in my prediction.

Anyways the PS4 should be a lot more lively late in it's life than the PS3, though not quite as much as the PS2 given that the PS5 probably won't cost $600.