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Thunderbird77 on 05 January 2016
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JWeinCom said:
Thunderbird77 said:
JWeinCom said:

Gimmick and draw mean the same thing.  But, I get what you mean, and I still completely disagree.

Take a look at the Gamecube.  More powerful than the PS2, Nintendo games, and fairly decent third party support.  Bombed.  

Even IF we assume that the NX gets every third party game day one from launch (which is absolutely unrealistic), then the NX will STILL be 3 years behind in its library.  So, in 2017 what is the draw for the NX exactly?  A few Nintendo exclusives vs 3 years of titles?  The console won't have a library as large and diverse as their rivals for at least two years, and by that time we'll be looking at the PS5.

And how is Nintendo going to draw hype for this thing?  In one booth, Sony has a VR helmet, Microsoft has hololens.  Nintendo has the same thing their competitors made in 2013, but in 2016.  You think that's going to draw headlines?  You think anyone besides the biggest Nintendo, who will buy the thing no matter what, will care?  If you're launching 3 years after a competitor you damn sure better have something to make your product standout, and Nintendo's software is not enough.  If Nintendo's games were THAT big of a draw, the Wii U would not be tanking as badly as it is..  If Nintendo launches without a gimmick, they're essentially begging for Sony's table scraps.

How do ps5 and xbox ??? compete with their rivals that have a 4-5 year library and are much cheaper? wii u's successor is in the same situation as any new gen console, it's competitors will be ps5 and xbox ??? As for the start of your example, all third party releases from that point onwards + nintendo games would make the machine incredibly atractive for the 66% of 7 gen console owners still without an 8 gen console by late 2016. They might as well go for the 9 gen with wii u's replacement.

And do bear in mind that GC didn't have decent third party support, it released one year after ps2 and most major third party games of that gen were ps2 exclusives.

Come on, you don't know the difference between a console launching in the middle of a generation and the start of the new one? 

The PS4 and XBox One launched when their previous consoles had reached their saturation point.  Gamers will be bored with their consoles and ready to upgrade.  They launched about 7 years after their predecessors.  This means technology had advanced to the point where they could make a significantly more powerful machine for an affordable price.  They launched when at a time where none of the major first parties were promoting their previous consoles with software or marketing in a significant capacity.  The PS4 and XBox One had features their predecessors did not.  If the NX goes a traditional route, it will not have feature the PS4One won't have.

The NX will be launching in the middle of the generation.  Microsoft and Sony will still be promoting their console with multimillion dollar ad campaigns and should be releasing some of their biggest titles at the time.  The systems will have not yet reached market saturation, and the systems will be getting strong support for at least 3 years.  Gamers who adopted early in the generation (which we'll call 33% for argument's sake) will not want to upgrade.  Those who do want to upgrade will have to choose between an unproven system with no notable gimmick to seperate it from its competition, and systems with established playerbases for online, and a library of exclusives and third party titles.  Only two years will have passed, so Nintendo will not be able to produce a meaningful boost in graphics while maintaining competitive pricing.  It's ridiculous to say they'll be in the same situation as any other new gen console.

The 7th gen market was about 150 million between the XBoxand PS3.  It would be silly to add in the entire Wii audience, because a large amount of those were casual gamers who won't be interested in a traditional console from Nintendo.  So, let's figure in about half of those, and we get to 200 million.  The PS4 and XBone will be at around 75 million at that point.  If we assume that the NX will have an equal amount of appeal to the PS4 and XBone (which it totally won't if they go the traditional route) they'll be looking at a bit more than 1/3 of that market.  So, that would be, in a best case scenatio, about 50 million.  Most likely, it will be significantly less than that.  Like 30 million.

The differences are pretty obvious.  Nintendo launching a traditional console *might* have worked in 2013.  No chance in hell it will work now.

Whatever replaces wii u won't be releasing in the "middle of a generation", it will be the start of the 9 gen and may be a little sooner than usual (if it launches 4 years after wii u). You can't say early adobters of the 8 gen will not want to upgrade. But as I said, they don't have to do so imedeately, many people still won't have upgraded their 7 gen systems.

the 7th gen market wasn't 150m between ps3 and 360. when factoring broken consoles and double dippers, it's 130m at most. adding wii buyers and factoring triple dippers gives us around 200-210m. most of those people are potential buyers for whatever nintendo releases and the people who already own an 8 gen system may consider wii u's successor as their 9 gen system after a while.

As for power, what does it matter if "it has been two years"? it will be a minimum of 3 years when the console launches and the tech inside ps4 and x1 wasn't even new in 2013. It's totally possible and probable to have a significant upgrade over those two without a much higher bill of materials.