Xbox Exec confirms 1 million for Rise of the Tomb Raider = sold through to consumers.

[binary solo]

Wright said:

binary solo said:
Square was disappointed with 4 million combined sales. 1 million is a good start, but if Square's budget was similar this time around then it will still need PC and probably PS4 to make a decent enough profit for this iteration of Lara to get a 3rd crack at the market. If it gets to 3 million on Xb one then square could be willing to look at another timed exclusive on Xb one, but probably only 6 months unless MS stumps up more cash.

Or Square already got their pockets full with the MS deal and they didn't need a sales deadline for Tomb Raider this time. The question that remains, considering the game sold over one million units, is if it was profitable for Microsoft.

highly unlikely square got paid enough to make this game profitable for them after just 1 million in sales if all MS gets in return is just 3 month's total exclusivity and 1 year console exclusivity. If Square wanted to be profitable at 1 million in sales they would have needed to give MS permanent Xbox exclusivity. Not being profitable at 4 million in sales for the reboot means what, a cost to market of $180 million?  MS paid Square $140 million odd for a piddling 3 month's full exclusivity? I don't think so. MS might have money to throw around, but the execs aren't stupid with money. An investment still needs to at least theoretically make a financial case. And considering MS needed to go to considerable lengths to keep holiday sales flat year on year instead of down, for MS it seems like paying Square $50 million for this exclusivity deal would be financially questionable.

 

So I think a more realistic assumption is that MS optimistically hoped for about 3 million in game sales on Xbox, and MS paid Square the balance between 3 million in sales and break even. Which is probably about 2 million in sales. What that does is make Pc and PS 4 sales almost purely profit as long as Xbox sales reaches about 3 million, which it could possibly achieve wishbone decent start it's had.