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I also think there is an hidden agenda that helps some games. Mature games always have an advantage.
If they address polemic subjects, like Inquisition with gay relationships, you also get an edge (even more in a #GG year).

That said, we are narrowing it down a lot. Nintendo for example always have nominees and get some GOTYs, just not the majority. If we could analyse the nominees we would see that Nintendo does get a lot of recognition.

I have my skepticism against 2013's TLOU, loved the plot and writting, but i found the gameplay a little dull.
I strongly disagree with 2014's Inquisition. It is a good recover from the second DA, but i would not even consider it as a nominee.