Will MGS4 numbers be > or < than GTA4 for PS3?

[windbane]

HappySqurriel said:

saprano1 said:
why do you ps3 haters keep bringing up the past? msg4 is a defferent beast, its going to seell ALOT of software and hardware in june. this is last mgs, EVERYBODY want to play this( bisides the ps3 haters) and this bundle WILL OUTSELL the wii the week of june 21st. do you know how many people want and are happy the 80gig is back? i bet 200 thousand or more for america and over seas in the first week. this is the game everybodys beens waiting for, it can easily sell 1 million in a week in america and obviously more in europe and the others. ALOT of wii and 360 fans are gonna eat major crow after the week of june 21st.................SOMEBODY QUOTE THIS POST..............get ready to be shocked

The best way to predict the future is to understand the past ...

The Metal Gear Solid and the Splinter Cell series have both demonstrated that there are limits to the number of people that want these spy/stealth based action games; in both cases the sales tend to plateau at 4 to 5 million units across all platforms. What this tells me is there is a maximum potential for a game like Metal Gear Solid 4 which falls far short of a lot of people's predictions.

Only the first Splinter Cell sold over a few million, and it was still a million less than MGS 1 and MGS 2. Both of those games sold 6 million. That's higher than your estimated plateau. Anyway, the games are completely different experiences. The audience for Splinter Cell is far lower than MGS. The past alone doesn't always provide the best guess of the future. Things change.