I guess the real question might be if something can beat the PS2, which will ship hundreds of millions of more games.
Wii is the console which is really going to have a good shot, I think. It will probably have lower tie ratios due to its wider audience, however it is also the only console with any shot of beating PS2's hardware sales. If Nintendo continued the Wii Sports and Wii Play pack-ins for the long term (I expect they will, just as they did with Tetris, SMB, etc.), they could potentially move 75 million+ between those two titles alone. If we include downloadable games, I imagine the Virtual Console will have ballooning sales to 100 and 150 million in the Wii's lifetime. (Though that isn't quite fair, since the VC will continue past Wii... But then again, its something which could pull down the tie ratio.) So between the pack-ins and downloads, you can spot Wii over 200 million potentially, which goes a long way towards the 1.5 billion it may need to beat PS2. If downloads don't count, I'm guessing PS2 will retain the crown, but we'd be overlooking the evolution of the business model with downloads if we say that much and stop.
Certainly a long-term proposition. Wii had shipped 28.84 million pieces of software through March, according to N's financial report. I assume that counts the Wii Sports pack-in, but not VC downloads. The quarterly report isn't too long away.
"[Our former customers] are unable to find software which they WANT to play."
"The way to solve this problem lies in how to communicate what kind of games [they CAN play]."
Satoru Iwata, Nintendo President. Only slightly paraphrased.
