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A good rule of thumb for games and exclusivity is,
if the game is either going multiplat, or switching historical sides...it is likely a game that has cost the dev too much money and probably not very good.

So, seeing as how a new metal gear by konami only is probably going to be bad, I think there's a genuine possibility that a new sans-Hideo metal gear could be xbox only.

Almost every time we've seen a game switch sides from one sequel to the next, or if the game was announced multiplat and then went exclusive, it's generally been bad. There's a huge list of games like that and very few exceptions.