November 2015 NPD Thread! Hardware and software in OP!

[binary solo]

Shadow1980 said:

If my projections for lifetime PS4 & XBO sales are accurate, their combined sales should amount to somewhere between those of combined PS2+Xbox sales and combined PS3+360 sales. If you account for things like sales legs and generation lengths, the available data suggests that the console market (excluding Nintendo) is no longer growing per se, but has reached a stable level. Now all we need to see is if the NX is a more conventional system, and if so, what kind of sales it will get and what effect those sales have on the overall size of the console market this generation.

Of course, as usual I've been focusing on the U.S. market since we have the most complete data set for it. But the console market in Europe should be somewhat similar to the NA market. The only major region where the console market has shown a clear an unambiguous contraction is Japan, but the console market in the West is doing very well and shows no signs of slowing down.

If you just look at PSXbox and remove the Nintendo fluctuations 7th gen is smaller than 8th gen, so in theory 8th gen should be smaller than 9th gen, I guess you have tyo figure some people went from PS2 to Wii so you can't exclude all Wii sales for the purposes of how PS4 + Xb one will end up. So perhaps you can figure 10-20 million PS4 sold to Wii owners from last gen coming back to PS, or hopping across to Xb one. Obviously Nintendo is going to push the button early on a new console, and it would be completely wrong to give Nintendo 2 bites at the 8th gen cherry for analysing intergenerational sales patterns. I also think MS is not going to be satisfied with falling from being on par with PS3, in the end, to being up to 2:1 behind globally and 3:1 - 4:1 behind outside of USA South America and UK. If PS4 builds up a significant lead Xb one is likely to follow NX reasonably quickly and hit the reset button and make sure to butter up gamers rather than piss them off when they announce the next console. MS may have accepted it's lost the 8th gen badly, but it really wants to actually win a generation, so they are going to put up with this gen only as long as they need to. No doubt they have a preliminary design for Xbox One-2 already scoped out, anbd a final design will probably be almost done at the end of next year.

You could almost take a top line gaming PC from 2012 slap it in a box and call it a 9th gen console. That's probably the amount of power we're looking at, so figure out when that can be packaged as a console and put it on the market for $399 and you'll have the launch window for the 9th gen Xbox.