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ZhugeEX on 11 December 2015
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Shadow1980 said:
Arkaign said:
Farsala said:
think-man said:
Im surprised X1 is still selling so good.

 

Install base of 110-120m+ in US last gen are not all going to buy PS4. Even subtracting Wii that leaves 65-75 of which PS4 wants 40m+.

I don't think there's an install base of 110-120m in the US.

You have a population of ~300m

Subtract young children (the parents would be the install base even if they bought say a WiiU or whatever for them for their Xth birthday)

Subtract prisoners and institutionalized individuals

Subtract homeless and severely mentally challenged

Subtract most of the ludicrously poor

Subtract the vast majority of people over age ~50

And that leaves a *potential* range of people that could be in the market for a video game console and/or dedicated handheld. But in my experience, it's actually fairly rare as the gen ages on for people that have any legimate interest in the hobby at all NOT to get a 2nd or even 3rd device over the course of a gen. This is particularly true in a household with multiple kids. Take last gen, say they started out grabbing a Wii in 2007, when their kids are in middle school. It's pretty likely that those kids got a PS3 and/or a 360 by 2010/2011 at the latest (provided their family could afford such, or they saved at a job).

Anyway, I'm not trying to be reductive or critical, but I just doubt that the numbers support 110-120M install base of 'exclusive' sales base. IOW, over the course of a gen the number of individuals and families that buy multiple devices grows a fair amount these days due to low costs over time, old units dying and needing to be replaced, or for a variety of other reasons ranging from the mundane to the extreme.

Yeah. Based on Nielsen reports, there is likely significant overlap of ownership between the several consoles. In other words, there were a lot of multi-console homes. While there were 110 million seventh-gen consoles sold in the U.S. as of 2014, the actual number of console-owning households was certainly a lot lower. Assuming an average of 1.5 consoles per console-owning household, you're talking about 73.3 million console-owning households. If the average was 2 systems, you're talking only 55 million console-owning households. 60-80 million seems a likely range for the number of households in America that own at least one seventh-gen console.

 

According to the Entertainment Software Association there are more than 63 million households in the U.S. with at least 1 dedicated video game console (Handheld or Static). There are an average of two gamers in each 'game-playing' U.S. household.

The install base of 7th generation video game devices in the US for Static and Handheld consoles stands at over 187 million. The 8th generation of video game devices has an install base of around 44 million so far. This generation is set to see a decline mainly due to the lack of demand for dedicated handheld gaming devices.