Arkaign said:
I don't think there's an install base of 110-120m in the US. You have a population of ~300m Subtract young children (the parents would be the install base even if they bought say a WiiU or whatever for them for their Xth birthday) Subtract prisoners and institutionalized individuals Subtract homeless and severely mentally challenged Subtract most of the ludicrously poor Subtract the vast majority of people over age ~50 And that leaves a *potential* range of people that could be in the market for a video game console and/or dedicated handheld. But in my experience, it's actually fairly rare as the gen ages on for people that have any legimate interest in the hobby at all NOT to get a 2nd or even 3rd device over the course of a gen. This is particularly true in a household with multiple kids. Take last gen, say they started out grabbing a Wii in 2007, when their kids are in middle school. It's pretty likely that those kids got a PS3 and/or a 360 by 2010/2011 at the latest (provided their family could afford such, or they saved at a job). Anyway, I'm not trying to be reductive or critical, but I just doubt that the numbers support 110-120M install base of 'exclusive' sales base. IOW, over the course of a gen the number of individuals and families that buy multiple devices grows a fair amount these days due to low costs over time, old units dying and needing to be replaced, or for a variety of other reasons ranging from the mundane to the extreme. |
Hardly matters, I already subtracted the Wii which is completely ludicrous. As people get older, 100% of them do not quit gaming. As 100m Wii owners get older some of them will get an Xbox One or PS4. As the kinect audience in 2011 gets older some of them will get the Xbox One and PS4. If only 80m is retained that still leaves ~55m owners to buy, split between XB1 and PS4.
