Shadow1980 said:
VGC is likely overtracking the XBO by a considerable margin. They have it barely down from last November. This is improbable for several reasons, as I explained in this post from the other day. |
However they seem to be probably right for BF, since MS has come out and said they were 22% up on last BF, and so long as VGC is reasonably close to correct to last BF that means this BF's number is right. Means previous weeks in Nov would need to be adjusted down and / or PS4's BF numbers should be adjusted up. Given the PS4 algorithm seems to be chrincally undertracking PS4 it seems like PS4 would need to be bumped up a bit. It is interesting to note that it seems all sales approximating information sources suggest BF week went to PS4 but VGC gave it (and in consequence November) to Xb one. So essentially heading into NPD it's VGC vs. the rest. I'm not sure what VGC's record is like when it's the only sales estimator predicting a certain result and all other pointers are predicting a different result.
If Wii U winds up being the #2 console on Amazon for the month it will be interesting to see whether Amazon's predictive value will hold. My guess is Wii U buyers possibly tend to buy through retailers moreso than through Amazon, so if Wii U is high on Amazon it probably means it's high elsewhere. But maybe the pattern is changing for WIi U and WIi U sales on Amazon are reaching a similar market share as with PS4 and Xb one.
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