I think we will see more of the same type of horse race by Sony and Xbox, attempting to use leverage of the console gaming market to get their hands on OTHER markets.
--I personally think this is why PS3 was slated for a 10 year run by all the big wigs in Sony. They want PS3 to last that long, not simply because it has a ton of stuff under the hood, but because Sony is hoping that in 10 years time, there will be a need for a new format type war that the PS4 can help give them some leverage in obtaining new grounds on.
Having used their PS2, and possible PS1, profits for betting on the PS3 big time, Sony can find itself in a huge hole. Sony has lots of money as a company as a whole, but they have been struggling fiscally lately. They don't have the kind of pockets MS has to freely burn their money away with.
I think Sony will win the format war, which will more than make up for their losses with PS3, even if it ends up third, thus securing them in for the next round although possibly bruised heavily in their gaming sector.
--Xbox is a bit more desperate then that as they need to get profitable by next gen: Period. If no profit by 2012, stock holders will see the Xbox brand as too much of a drag on their bottom line.
Unless they gain lots of ground this gen, which looks possible, they are most likely the first contender to be knocked out of the ring. I feel that their success' due to Sony's failures this gen will be hurt gravely as I feel they will have an Achilles heel with their failure rates, which will take most of the wind out of their sales.
So it's hard to say how far MS will go based on the desperation moves it might plot out for the NextBox. So they might attempt to force Sony and Nintendo's hand once more with an early release. I'm sure it will look for an alternative to support against Sony's new format war in hopes of gaining the same possible leverage in a new market.
--I think with Wii's initial success, Nintendo isn't looking at their old models of marketing anymore. No question they are around for the next round.
I think we will see refinements in the Wiimote and the motion sensing capabilities of the Wii2. By that time, at least many of the companies will have had some experience with games that utilize the motion sensing control schemes which could make the Wii2's possibilities even more dramatic than we know the Wii to be possible of now. And of course, a graphics updates.
I would love for the Big N to come out of left field with something major like the Wiimote again, but I think that's a bit of wishful thinking. I don't want Nintendo, or any company in gaming, to push gaming evolution too fast to the point were the games suffer. But I have to wonder if they have been so successful with the DS and Wii now that they won't try another calculated risk.
Only chance of a new contender is when a vaccum is created by someone leaving.
"There are three types of lies : Lies, damned lies, and statistics." - Benjamin Disraeli ( Made famous by Mark Twain )
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