| thismeintiel said: Not off a cliff, but we are going to start to see a decline. At least until MS drops to $299. Of course, Sony will probably answer in kind this time, so it won't help them for long. And people need to lay off the "best selling Xbox console.". MS has stopped talking about sales because they know the 360's aligned launch is right in the rearview mirror and coming fast. The XBO may end up at 35M-40M, nowhere near 360's 85M+. |
I think you're correct here.
People forget that the X360 didn't really launch very well. OG Xbox built a solid but small core fanbase on the back of Halo, and while there are many great assorted titles for the OG model, none of them were big hits to be honest sales-wise compared to the massive Halo 1/2 sales. 360 launched with no Halo, and really lacked a 'system seller' type of game. To make things tougher, a lot of people had PS2s and were waiting to see what PS3 would bring. Of course PS3 came out at a ludicrous price and by that time the games had started to flow for 360, so 360 began to build up steam. It was a slow burner out of the gate, but once Gears and Halo 3 were out combined with lower pricing, THEN it started the US dominance most people associate with the 7th gen. Further out, the initial Kinect craze also fueled a 2nd wind for it.
None of this is true this gen. The 360 built up a larger loyal core following during its time, and that allowed for a BIG launch for X1, but it was nearly the opposite reality compared to 360 over time. 360 was a slow start that steadily built and became dominant in the US. X1 had a massive start, but has for the most part declined outside of major holiday sales (with massively lower pricing and higher value-adds/packins) than 360 offered at the same generational timeframe.
Given that it looks like X1 will be down YoY for 2015, and PS4 seems destined to win even US hoiday sales (Oct/Nov/Dec) during the timeframe of the single biggest Xbox franchise mainline release, I also rather doubt that a 'slim' model will do very much for the X1. The 360S redesign had several things going for it that won't be true this gen. The 360 was already the #1 console in gen7 USA when they brought that slim out. Additionally, the early 360 'fats' were notoriously flaky with the RROD fiasco, so you had a lot of repeat buyers that wanted the better model. So it was a case of high market inertia and a real hunger for an improved model that fueled that success. The X1 is already pretty darned reliable, quiet, and affordable. Other than the possible complaint that it's too large, there isn't much to expect from an X1 'slim' redesign lifting up X1 sales. And finally, the PS3's Cell architecture and high BoM costs guaranteed X360 had a price advantage during the 7th gen. With the 8th gen, its doubtful that Sony wouldn't just match X1's price all along the way either $ for $ or hanging close.
So 'fall off a cliff'? I don't think it will be anything that could be described THAT dramatically, but I think that 2014 might be the peak year, as 2015 (with Halo, and with many months of considerable pricing advantages) already looks lower than 2014, combined with the slate of releases for both systems in 2016 : I think 2016 X1 sales will be lower than 2015 as well.
I predict personally that X1 will be the virtual definition of a front-loaded console. I also believe that the architectural / capability similarity with PS4 pretty much guarantees that it will continue to see solid multiplat support, it's not like people are just going to stop making the big AAA multiplats for it. We're already seeing a ton more niche/variety games that are retail non-indie games on slate for PS4, but the ACs, Batmans, Maddens, CoDs, etc will always come to PS4 and X1.
Final LTD for X1 will be 35-50M low/high. PS4 should be 80-110M low/high. Though in the US I don't think PS4 will ever truly be dominant. They might achieve 65/35 by end of gen optimistically, with a more realistic outlook looking like 60/40.
