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The only gen that lasted past the 6 year mark was the 7th gen. That gen went on way too long imo. 2018 seems very likely for Microsoft. Not just for the head start, but I believe Microsoft doesn't want Sony to hold a monopoly ever again so they will make the 5 year gen cycle standard. The biggest thing Microsoft can do is keep expanding and find ways/reasons to get xbox in people's living room. They need to really buyout AMD not for power, but to get the xbox systems at a cheap price.

Also, 4k will probably not be the standard next gen. People are already complaining about how much time it takes to download games and 4k tvs won't be standard for a while. There is more to graphics then rez.