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the truth lays in between
i find both hard to believe. the 20/25% and the 50% figure

but 30-40% seems totally reasonable
the digital attachrate for different games, regions and demographics is so different.
while the overall 20% for AAA consolegames is a decent estimate, the figure for one special game could be way more or less

we know, that us digital attachrate is bigger compared to eu
we know hardcore games have a higher digital attachrates
we know online games tend to have a higher digital attachrates
we know xbox one has a (slightly) higher digital attachrate than ps4
i don't know, but i have a feeling that first party and exclusives have a higher digital attachrate compared to third party multiplats

but unless ms will disclose any numbers, we will never know the exact figure.