It's a bit early to tell indeed. Sony announced it would have a 110 real titles in stores, so one could expect that Nintendo will have about the same and higher amount of games. But mostly those big numbers are made by sport games etc that will not drive the consumer towards a console (its multiplatform) and it won't drive developers towards insanity. it has been done before and it will hapen for the next lustrum.
I think the long term sales are correlated with the amount of new well done franchises. There were games like 'beyond good and evil' and 'psychonouts' that were excellent but not sold well, a bit like resistance. On the other hand are games like resident evil that made the franchise live up and made it a console seller.
Now Nintendo tends to invest a lot into new franchises, so i guess if some are great it could fall into category D.
However you have to keep in mind that many remember the PS2. It's a miracle that so much people still are die-hard supporters even if it's clear that it will take Sony at least 2 years to even catch up if it starts selling well at the end of the year. (probably many of them did spend 600$ of a PS3, so they'll want some value out of it sometime)
Oh well, i think it's clear that the Wii will do well. So maybe we could start giving the PS3-fans a bit of help. They seem to need it, the PS3 isn't that bad after all, it's just (very) poorly presented.
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