John2290 said:
Johnw1104 said:
Proxy wars yes, but the aim of those proxy wars isn't completely focused on outmanuevering one another. Russia has reasons, such as the year round warm water Mediterranean ports, for wanting to see Assad propped up, but the tensions are no where near those of the previous Cold War, nor are the stakes. Russia is far weaker, both militarily and economically, than they were the first time around.
You've a rather odd view of the circumstances, by the way. China and the U.S. are certainly unspoken rivals, but they are absolutely dependent on one another. There's been a friendship of convenience between Russia and China to reduce US influence in Asia, the pacific, and Europe, but both have alienated themselves by doing so (note the militarizing and strengthening of ties between Japan/South Korea/Australia/Taiwan/Indonesia and the USA in the Pacific as they fear China's intentions for the region). Russia, meanwhile, is still under heavy sanctions and can count almost no one among their friends.
Otherwise, the U.S. military still holds a massive advantage over the other two, especially in regards to the all important "force projection" capabilities and navy. I'm not sure where you're getting this idea that they're actually weak as, if you're referring to the slower economy or rising debt, those are two things that would likewise destroy your proposed opponents (China/Russia) should they ever cause economic collapse.
Really, China and the U.S. are, in my mind, more akin to the tense but brilliant trade relationship you saw between the U.S. and UK in the 19th century. There's little room for an actual war between the two as they'd be economically devastating (not to mention China can not yet hope to win as their own admirals have stated in the recent past) and they're far better off maintaining what they've thus far built.
There's no real Cold War yet, then... Instead there's a rush to defeat ISIS and replace it with whatever seems most advantageous to the participant. There will always be disagreement there, especially so long as Russia tries (vainly) to reestablish the kind of empire it held in the past which, so far, has yielded little more than a damaged reputation, economic turmoil, and the money sink known as the Crimean Peninsula.
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So what would you say to the maneuverING of forces by the US in recent years seemingly aimed at shoving a fist at China. There is fear in the US government of China. But they are very much dependent on each other although I'm sure there are contingenies in place by both governments had something go awry in relations. I don't think the fact that they are dependant has anything to do with it. The west relies on Russia to keep 70 percent of the worlds oil on track, they could easily shut the supply and this is the bug threat, the stakes are higher than you seem to believe as Russia choking to oil supply is more of a reality than the two countries exchanging nukes. Did I mention Russia just strolled in and siezed an entire country...? Look around man. Things are moving just like they were last time, just without the nukes.
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There are certainly mutual fears, that's just human nature. They're testing one another's limits as great powers tend to do... China is building artificial islands to make a (illegal by international law) claim on the nearby sea lanes/trade routes (another reason their neighbors are worried about them) and the U.S. likes to sail right on by them to show they don't recognize those claims. These are the sorts of territorial and trade disputes that are always going on, not at all indicative of some grander global Cold War.
I'm not sure where you're getting your oil numbers. The U.S. already produces the most oil in the world (about 25% more than Russia) and if you were only to count the top 5 producers Russia only accounts for about 25% of their output. You also don't seem to be considering that Russia's economy is already in shambles and simply cutting off the oil would be disastrous for them more so than anyone else.
Otherwise, Russia seized the Crimean peninsula from Ukraine, it's yielding them virtually no benefits, costing them a fortune, and led to endless sanctions.
Basically, your grandfather's USSR this is not... Again, while Putin may be throwing his weight around in an effort to reassert Russian relevancy, it is a far, far weaker country than it was fifty years ago. The current circumstances are enormously different from those first few years following the end of WWII.
