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If the content on the disk is used it wont be a massive dl. The business model is vary viable. They have less expenses per sale and the huge sales of the call of duty 4 map pack point to it being extremely viable by the time it hits live. The map pack sold something like a million times in 9 days. Consider that GTA 4 will significantly increase xbox live membership and you've got DLC that will make a lot of money, sell very well, be less expensive to distribute and not an overly huge file.