On the one hand I can appreciate that a big chunk sales are on Black Friday, i don't believe it was all down to black friday last year that swung such a huge amount of sales. We were hearing everyday last November about how almost every person, in every store was buying Xbox ones.
The 4 games deals with $50 dollar gift cards started at the beginning of the month, and it never looked any different anywhere, with all the Xbox bundles in the top spots. Sony made a huge mistake with a one day only limited GTA5 bundle at the regular price.
This November is nothing like last year, so calling it a lock because of last year alone is obviously the only conclusion anybody can draw....
Ultimately I can see it being really close, because I think more people are locked into the system they will buy, instead of just going off price. Either way, we will soon see.