Target and Walmart are also the only ones selling X1 cheaper than PS4 during BF (at least so far). That should tell you a thing or two about them (not that it was necessary after looking at previous years). Stick with Amazon for measuring sales unless others have special deals; which is not the case, as Amazon has the same deals right now.
Software NPD will be ironic. Free game promo (+ for X1) and PS4 bundled copies (- for PS4) means X1 will probably be ahead on Blops and Battlefront (in the public chart, not overall numbers), which Sony has the marketing for, while F4, which MS has the marketing for, will probably have PS4 as the leading version.