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OP I too think MS might take Black Friday but not for the "exclusive" reason. From the best sellers of most retailers PS4 seems to be leading comfortably. MS really needs US and they will put up a fight.
I believe MS will announce even better deals coming black Friday then the one that are already available. Cause with the deal announced so far I don't see them winning Black Friday and MS needs the US too much to miss an opportunity to sell a lot of Xbox One, specially after realizing that Halo was not the hardware pusher they were hoping for.