Funny how you're aware of CoD and CoD fans, but not at all of a little franchise called Star Wars and its small fanbase. The SW LE Bundle is just one of the best selling bundles on Amazon since September (3 months in the top 30). I'm sure it won't sell well...
The only way MS can win BF is with huge price cuts. Nothing to do with exclusives here.
BF is all about price and availability, most good deals sell out so it comes down to who supplies the most at great prices. great bundles are a bonus but they come secondary to price and stock as many of the buyers are parents buying for kids at xmas. No idea who will win but I think it will simply come down to price/stock levels.