You are giving too much importance to exclusives. What really make consoles sell are third party games and Sony have marketing rights with all of them (except Fallout 4 but I bet is selling better on PS4). You have proof right here in the NPD data, Halo 5 barely moved consoles and Tomb Raider can't even sell by itself. BC and special features are all well and good, but they don't sell consoles. The winner of Black Friday will be whom can offer the best deals, period.