Who will be the next 'new dog' to consoles?

[greenmedic88]

This is like asking "Who will be the next significant company to release a dedicated handheld gaming device?"

The question is presumably intended to be approached as who can design and produce and sell a gaming console in significant numbers (double digit market share) along with possessing or establishing the prerequisite distribution channels for both hardware and retail software. But this is an old model that falls into the high risk, lower potential ROI category leaving the primary reason for such a new product control of media distribution by establishing a new walled garden for services and goods. Emphasis on gaming and media content services intentional as retail game revenue streams would very likely be secondary in priority.

And so we examine who already has said walled garden in place as opposed to looking for a large company with the means but not necessarily the desire to create this and we are left with companies such as Amazon, Apple and Valve.

Focus on the companies that already have the content and the developers and examine the benefits of developing and producing a specific proprietary box (set top) on which to play said content.

Apple? I would be surprised to see them make another Pippin given that they already have their own hardware between desktop, laptop and mobile devices on which to play content purchased through their services. The only thing missing is an Apple game pad to either be paired up with Apple TV and a cloud gaming service or as an alternate control scheme for their OS X or iOS based games. Not a console. No need to create an internal split within their own customer base along with the one that already exists between iOS and OS X which is not to say that Apple couldn't produce a dedicated gaming box that used either OS, but this is a why they would not if they can question.

Valve already has companies producing Steam Box, and for them, there is far more profit to be made by providing game distribution services through Steam and peripherals (typically the most lucrative part of selling console based hardware platforms) for use with said service. There's no benefit in buying a Valve brand Steam Box anymore than there is benefit in Valve producing them.

So that leaves us with Amazon at least as far as US companies are concerned. Not a hardware company (barring the nice content and media device in the Kindle), not a game company, just one of the largest distribution channels for general goods including entertainment media. I would like to hear a pitch to start a console or set top box division because I am doubtful it would be successful.

So we look at Japan which seems content with mobile apps played on consumers' own mobile devices.

And then we get to China, which has recently created a small market for console based game ecosystems. If VGC has the numbers for sales, I haven't read much about them, leading me to believe that their games market remains firmly entrenched in the PC and mobile markets.