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Halo isn't big in continental Europe.Don't ask me why, i love it.
Install base in Europe again is way smaller than it was for the 360. And Halos attach rate in EU was way smaller than in the US.
Halo 4 had 9% attach rate in Europe and 15% in the US.

Let's say that Xbox One owners in Europe are more core MS fans and Halo 5 has the same attach rate as in the US at best.That'd be 700K Halo for Europe at best.
Now if the attach rate is as low as with other Halos it's more in the 400-450K range.

Rest of world would be more or less half of european sales so between 200 and 350K.

That's 600K-1.1M at the very best, expecting a higher attach rate outside the US than every other Halo had.

Now the US sales plus 20% digital and we get from 2.4M-3.1M, though i'd really expect something around 2.5 million.

Looking at the last Halo releases that would be roughly 33% of Halos lifetime sales, so it might end somewhere between 7 and 9.5 million.

That is effectively a major decline over Halo 3 but a not so big decline compared to Reach and 4.