I would hope MS sold well more than 200k X1's for Halo week. It's literally the flagship series for the brand, and this is the first mainline entry for the console.
We as currently set have no idea on the splits, or what is included. MS could be super creative and include non-H5 bundled X1s sold in this timeframe due to the (admittedly VERY probable) possibility that someone buying a $349 X1 during Halo week is probably buying it to play Halo 5. $349 X1 + $59 Halo 5 is the cheapest way to do it anyway, not everyone wants to pay $500 for LE.
As for the rest : REQ Pack sales, Controllers(?), Headsets(?), New/Renewed XBLG subs, etc, could all play a part in the quoted $400M number, or they might not.
5M+ 1st week sales are exceedingly unlikely given the X1 install base and accredited insider info from vetted people such as Abdiel (who on Neogaf/Bish certified, and a long history of great retailer info) that indicates that Halo 5 sold very well, but not particularly amazingly. Add in Amazon rankings, and it's all pretty muddy.
NPD will tell us a lot, but at the same time, may not really be enough either. Halo 5 will EASILY be the #1 software debut of the year so far, even without digital included.
The smart money is that H5 is a success on it's own terms (2015 console/FPS/platform realities considered), but will do less sales than Halo 3 or Halo 4. Not a disastrous falloff, but as we all know, there are ups and downs to everything.
It would have been interesting to know the Halo 3 first week revenue totals if the same items were included (hardware, misc merchandise, etc).
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