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There's no way they have shipped more than 16M X1s (end of September) and I'm already being generous

US sales of X1 make up about 65% of its totals and it had only sold through 8.1M in the US. So the global sold through couldn't have been any higher than 14M.

The first quarter used for those numbers already includes over 3M 360s..instantly down to 21M. Then add up all the other quartets for 360 and you have the real number (15-16M)