Amazon US October monthly bestsellers and general Amazon based discussion

[Pionner]

GribbleGrunger said:

Pionner said:
Wow did you miss my post from before? It seems you did. Your thinking would only apply if TLoU (and Destiny) bundle situation happened at every store. But it isn't. Basing the month off of a simple stock issue at one retailer and one console doesn't make a good prediction. Yes this is a Amazon thread but you're generalising something that's not true anywhere else. Why so focused on that one console? Then you bring up the spacing in the monthly as if that means anything in regards to that bundle. A bundle where sales will be picked up elsewhere.

No disrespect to you at all. You're cool people. I just don't like when Amazon is used the wrong way to predict NPD and then everyone gets disappointed when NPD result don't turn out the way they expected then blame Amazon and claim it's useless and shouldn't be used.

I can agree that other retailers have stock and so Amazon could be wrong this month. It has been wrong one other time and so it's not unprecedented. We can't ignore the excellent Amazon record though and we can't ignore the possibility of the Halo Preorders just tipping the ballance. I'm not saying that the Halo bundle will eventually lead in the monthlies, I'm saying that the gap could be small enough (now that the bundle which lead is out of stock) that the preorders will have a more significant role to play this month. Perhaps I shouldn't have expressed my opinion so emphatically because I'm still not 100% certain the XB1 will win, but I'm now FAR more inclined to believe Halo will win and I DO think if they do it will because of the stock shortages of the 'winning' PS4 bundle.

To sum up: I think Amazon will show a PS4 win for this month, but whether it keeps its close to 100% record entirely depends on whether the Halo preorders are lower than expected and other retailers have more than made up for the loss of the winning bundle on Amazon. I said to another poster much earlier in this thread that his assessment of the Halo bundle was entirely based on 'what if' and that my assessment was entirely based on 'what is' but now it's come full circle and it's the PS4 that stands solidly on the 'what if' side.

Yeah Amazon has a excellent track record and i want that that to continue too. But we can't ignore other possibilities when Amazon might not be correct. By acknowledging them that's actually how the record stays since there would be a clear reason why Amazon didn't match NPD if it happens.

I agree it's still possible for XB1 to win this month. But it's not because TLoU bundle is out of stock at Amazon.