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SWORDF1SH said:

This is true. Somebody said (maybe in this thread) that Amazon only accounts for 5% of console sales. Not sure if true but sounds reasonable.

That was me. I wish I have the link to Zhuge's post on GAF that shows the percentage of marketshare each retailer has, but this is the best alternative I have: http://abload.de/img/npdmarch2015finalt3yqu.png

Gamestop holds the plurality of marketshare. This also explains why the XBO won April NPD since the console got a huge trade-in deal at the retailer while the PS4 did not. If Console A sells the most on Gamestop, it'll most likely sell the most according to NPD. Alternatively, if Console A sells the most in Walmart, Target, and Best Buy, it'll also most likely sell the most since those three make up over half the marketshare when put together. Why has Amazon managed to correctly predict the winning console? My hypothesis is that it's because the purchasing trends on Amazon tend to be identical/similar to those in other retailers.