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In October 2007, 1 month after Halo 3 came out, MS introduced a 280$ 360 model. Cause it was a more basic one, it was not really a price cut (one had already happened in August). Still, what you had was: one price cut 1 month before Halo 3 and 1 cheaper model 1 month after.
Unless they are under so much pressure after last year's deals to not keep losing money, there's no way they are going to keep the current price. It'll probably only happen in November so that they can benefit a bit from Halo launch at current price

I am curious how October numbers will stack up against last year. XB1 will obviously be up, had low numbers in 2014, around 168k I think. PS4 did 300k.. Price should help it be up YOY but the fact that the 2/3 November bundles are gathering a lot of pre orders could hurt the October-boost. There is clearly a lot more interest in them than the NDC bundle.