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There a few thing that will work against Fallout 4:
*Multi platform owner (PS4 & Xbox One) will probably get the game on PS4.
*Big holiday marketing to push for Rise of the Tomb Raider might sway customers to get Tomb Raider, especially uninformed buyers.
*Limited appeal of Action-RPG vs Action-adventure. Which game will have more appeal to the mass market.
*Time exclusivity of Rise of The Tomb Raider will spark interest from Xbox One gamer.