| Domicinator said: So Sony just recently had their Playstation thingie and re-announced a bunch of games. Their execs also flapped their gums a lot. What I got from it was this: GTAIV DLC is Microsoft's last chance for Xbox 360 to be successful, Microsoft has lost hardware sales battle in Europe, and that the PS3 is going to be the ultimate platform for the next 9 years, overcoming both the Wii and the Xbox 360. |
The "10 year life cycle" thing is particularly silly, and Sony is using it in a very misleading way. If their platforms are the ultimate for 10 years, then the PS2 is currently the ultimate platform, not the PS3, and then PS3 can be the ultimate platform when its successor comes out in, probably, 2011 or 2012.
The current generation is probably about 1/3rd over, starting from the Xbox 360's release. The system came out in late 2005. It's 2.5 years old and will probably make it to 5 or 6 years before it gets succeeded as MS' ultimate platform. Sony will, no doubt, replace the PS3 with a new lead platform when the PS3 is 5 or 6 years old as well, most likely making an effort (if possible) to coincide their next release with Microsoft's next release.
I don't believe the PS3 will continue as strongly as the PS2 did when its successor is released. The primary reason for this is cost: the PS2 was likely less than 1/2 as expensive to manufacture on release as the PS3. This means that as cost reductions occurred, Sony was able to get the PS2 to $130 and make a nifty profit on it. At the same time, the PS3 was $500 and $600 at launch, and eventually dropped to $400 and $500. This made the PS2 the only Sony platform in reach for many Sony faithful.
When the PS4 comes out, it probably won't be as expensive to manufacture and it probably won't be priced nearly as high as the PS3. The PS3 won't benefit from the price disparity that the PS2 benefited from. Sony now sold their Cell fab plant, and will more likely use even more off-the-shelf components from companies that specialize in making those components.
If my speculation turns out true, and none of it is unreasonable, then the PS3 will likely not have nearly the same success in the second half of its life as the PS2 did.
