chunk, I think it'd be suicide for MS to release a new Xbox in 2010. Developers still haven't stopped reeling from the cost hike associated with the transition to the HD systems. Another increase of development costs (even if not as extreme) so soon would undo a great deal of the good-will MS has built with developers.
That will be especially bad considering the fact that the Wii may not even peak until 2010 (though 2009 is more likely) and will certainly be going strong through 2011. That would be an uphill battle the whole way, and by the time MS hit their stride (likely two years later) the PS4 would be released at nearly the same cost with noticably more power. Going against the Wii in its prime will retard MS's start, and make the struggle to 10 million harder than it was for the 360.
2011 is the best time for MS to launch a new system, though 2012 is better than 2010. Unless this generation turns out different than previous ones, it's safe to say Nintendo has no intention of cutting their console's life cycle short in its prime in order to compete with a product that doesn't really threaten their position. It doesn't make any sense and wouldn't maximize their profits, unless it's a GBC-esque upgrade.
And let's be honest, with the way Nintendo is pulling in the money, by the time they'd first consider a new console (2012), they'd have the technology in their next system to make the Xbox3 look a bit pale in consideration, I'd wager. Heaven forbid Sony keeps gaining steam from this point and defies the expected trend of second place consoles.
You do not have the right to never be offended.
