| Shadow1980 said: The chart, along with the SNES vs. N64 chart, was meant to illustrate the importance of post-peak sales legs for hardware in response to those insinuating that the PS4 could experience a rapid drop-off. As a general rule, the more well-supported a system is, the more gradual of a decline it will experience. When Nintendo had the lion's share of third-party support in the 8-bit & 16-bit eras, we saw the NES and SNES have good legs. No subsequent Nintendo system enjoyed those kind of legs because of the inferior support they got. In fact, the Wii's legs were so weak that its sales in 2013 & 2014 in the U.S. were less than the SNES's sales in 1998 & 1999. Considering that it passed the SNES's lifetime sales in the U.S. within its first 26 months on the market, for it to drop off at such much, much faster rate is pretty significant, and demonstrates what can happen to sales of aging systems that lack sufficient support. The PS4 will have plenty of support throughout the generation and at least a couple of years into the next generation, and thus we should not expect to see a rapid drop-off in sales after it passes its peak. The decline should be much more modest, in keeping with other systems that got strong support throughout their lives. That was the entire point of those graphs: to make a point about sales legs. Not to say the PS4 will beat the Wii or anything. Also, the PS3 and 360 both experienced a more rapid drop-off than the PS2 because the dynamics of the seventh generation were odd. The PS3 and 360 both experienced very delayed peaks, and by time it got close to the start of the eighth generation we were likely getting close to both systems' maximum sales potential. By spring 2013, before the PS4 had a release date or price announced and before the XBO was even offcially unveiled, sales of the 360 & PS3 had already dropped to new lows. They needed replacements ASAP. The seventh generation should never be looked at as some sort of standard. The whole generation was one big anomaly. |
Ok good post although what you said about the 7th gen can be applied to the 5th and 6th gen because the PS4 wont have the dominate 3rd party support. So all we can do is wait and see what kind of legs the PS4 has. Im personally not buying that the "7th gen dynamics were odd."
