S.T.A.G.E. said:
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Why on earth would NPD be the only thing that matters during the fourth quarter ? You're saying that because you want to find a place where the XBox can win. Like I said earlier, the Wii U is still beating the Xbox One in France (according to Nintendo France), can the Wii U fans claim that their console is selling better than the Xbox One and has relevance because of it ?
If MS win by a really small margin in US, but is butchered in all the other countries, they lose relevance. The most important thing is the marketshare, and it's something some people forgot because of the last generation. PS3 and Xbox 360 had the same marketshares (360 even had the lead at the beginning), so it was useless to make exclusive games. But right now, with the PS4 above the 50% mark and still taking more and more marketshares, exclusive titles will become relevant again, especially for the titles not targeting the only Xbox audience (USA). If you expect your game to sell badly in US, don't even release it on Xbox. That's really simple.
So no, NPD is just the only thing where the race is interesting to watch because you can't even call it a race anywhere else in the world, it's a solo run for the PS4. That's the only thing making NPD relevant. And yet, PS4 is winning NPD this year (the One won 1 month only, is that it ?), so it could even lose a month and win YoY... Imagine the opposite, PS4 struggling to tie against the One in Japan, and being inexistant anywhere else.... Nobody would call the PS4 relevant in that case. In fact, that's basically the Wii U/One situation (the Wii U win against the One almost only in Japan) and the Wii U is frequently called an almost dead console. Nobody celebrates the Wii U japanese sales saying "Yeah, we beat the One !!". The Xbox is kinda the american Wii U IMO , selling well in its home country, but really struggling abroad. That's not a good thing, even if you choose to ignore 7 billion people to watch only 300 millions.
It's like saying "American football is more popular than football" because American football has more spectators in the US than football during the Super Bowl. You can choose to consider only some people, for only a certain period of time, but it doesn't change the big picture. If you say that you are only interested in Nov-Dec NPD, then I get it, but it doesn't make it the only thing that matters.
But I don't understand your point about Black Friday... Yes, in Europe we have sales too, it generates a lot of cash, but the PS4 sells a lot more than the One with it. I don't get what it has to do with Microsoft having relevance ? :/