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I think he is half right.
People do want innovation, but they don't want it in their favorite franchises. You can sneak in some small changes, but pulling a 180 on the fans rarely ends up well.

Judgment underperformed because of a mixture of factors, but the gameplay formula is not one of them. It released too soon after GeoW3 (and in spring instead of fall/holiday), it had different characters, it had much less marketing exposure....
...and I think there was a bit of gamer fatigue.

I expect GeoW4 not to deviate much from the formula, but it will sell great because of a 5 year wait between games (discounting Judgment of course).