patronmacabre said:
All I can say is never underestimate the power of Metal Gear Solid, Call of Duty, and Star Wars.
Personally, I think the "Microsoft has an unbeatable fall line-up" is mostly just a slogan that Microsoft is espousing that Sony has made no effort to contradict, and has even supported with stupid PR statements.
Realistically, Tomb Raider is a timed exclusive, and while it will help move Xboxes, I am unsure how strongly in favor of Xbox the timed exclusivity will help it. It will definitely help Xbox, don't get me wrong, and I'm unsure how well known it will be that Rise of the Tomb Raider is timed.
Forza sells well, but it doesn't sell that well, and it's uncertain if its annual franchise-ization has led to series fatigue. The sales numbers indicate its possibility, but again, it's uncertain.
Fable Legends is on PC and free-to-play. I doubt it will move units.
As I see it, the core of Microsoft's line-up is Halo 5, through and through. Halo 5 will sell exceptionally well and move a ton of Xboxes, but there's uncertainty there, too. Halo 4 saw a huge drop-off in its online userbase after little more than a week. If the same thing happens to Halo 5, there could be trouble. I personally don't believe this is as likely to happen, because it seems apparent that 343 is making an extremely conscious effort to make Halo 5 extremely appealing, but it is still a risk.
The last thing I would mention is that it might be best to keep Xbox sales expectations in check. Last year, Microsoft managed to sell almost 75% of its annual units in the September to December months. It achieved this, at least heavily in part, due to its amazing sales during the holiday shopping season. But, whereas 500 dollars was considered the default price of an Xbox One for most of 2014, 350 dollars and a game is the default price for 2015. It would be difficult and highly costly to make a similarly incredible sale for 2015. Despite the appeal of Halo 5, I don't think it's likely we're going to see unbelievable sales percentage spikes for the Xbox One, outside of the week Halo 5 comes out.
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