July 2015 NPD Thread! PS4, XBO, Wii U hardware estimates up

[binary solo]

ZhugeEX said:

binary solo said:

150% of ~11 million is ~16.5 million. Unless the actual PS360 figure is 10.8M in which case it's 16.2M, or if the real difference is 47%. 16.2M figure would make PS4 ~250K, which is a reasonable sounding number.

The quote from NPD says "close to50%" not exactly, or above, or more than, but nearly/close to.

 

The numbers i've posted are rounded to nearest 100k. They are correct. 

How can 16.2M be correct to withing 100K when all we have to go on is "close to 50%". You're basically pegging the "close to" actual % to be between 46.8% and 47.8%. So you're operating on a 1% range when there is at least a 2.5% or 3% range within which the actual % could possibly sit.

The max range is 16.497M (exactly 50%) down to 16.155M (PS4 only beating Xb one in July by 1K). The only thing we know for sure is that the PS4bone cume is within that range, we don't have enough solid data be be more accurate than that. We can surmise that the most likely number ofr PS4 is between 200K and 250K, just based on the factors influencing sales in July. But we don't know for sure. We can also surmise that if PS4 was waaay ahead of Xb one Sony would have said something more than it did regarding relative sales, like "almost 2:1" or "50% more than Xb one". So we can be pretty confident the gap isn't massive. But that still leaves a reasonable bit of room to move. 16.2M is the MPN rounded to the nearest 100K. But it's not the "correct" number, yet.