Will PS4 have a price cut this year?

[Eddie_Raja]

Shadow1980 said:

Eddie_Raja said:

So have you noticed the RATIO of sales?

PS2: Everyone else = ~1.45:1

PS4: Everyone else= ~1.85:1

From the perspective of ratio, the PS4 is capturing market relative to its competition faster than the PS2 did.  It does not need a price drop as badly.

Um, what? Through the first half of 2002 the PS2 averaged 61% market share and outsold the second-place system nearly three-to-one. Meanwhile, the PS4 hasn't been able to average a simple majority market through the first half of this year (the NPD had it at 48% so as of June) and has sold only 21.7% more than the second-place console. When you're talking just market share, 61% is a huge step up from 48% (at 60% you're outselling the entire competition 3-to-2, while at 48% the competition is outselling you by 8%), and don't forget that the third-place console this gen is performing significantly worse than the third-place system in the sixth generation.

The PS4 may be winning in the U.S., but the only place it's dominating is Europe. But even in Europe it's sales have only improved YoY this year about what the PS2 did in the U.S. in Jan.-April period of 2002 versus the same period in 2001, and said sales improvement for the PS4 may be largely due to supply constraints not being an issue like they apparently were last year. The PS4 is no PS2 when it comes to being an unstoppable juggernaut, and sales aren't going to have any truly significant growth without a price cut.

The Wii U came out a year early, and frankly the Xbox One's numbers are inflated by how frontloaded it was.  If you remove 5 mil from both the PS4 and Xbox One (Theit 2013 numbers), and then remove the 4.5mil the Wii U had from its early launch - it is 20 v 8 + 5.5.  Thus again you can see the PS4 has been selling at 60% of the market share.

I am not saying the PS4 will sell as well as the PS2, but it will "win" as well.  Maybe the PS2 didn't need a price drop and Sony could have made more money back then.  They certainly need the money now ;).

 

P.S.  Remeber I did say that I thought and still kinda think they will drop the price to $300 this fall, but it they don't my explanation is an attempt to explain why they wouldn't.  Would Sony give up 5-10% more marketshare for 20-30%  more profit?  I think so!