Chris Hu said:
Aura7541 said:
You're stretching the data a bit too much, don't you think? The gap between January 18 to February 1 is nearly two weeks. Assuming Forza 5 sold 20K per week, VGC would have overtracked by about 42K sales. In addition, Microsoft's number includes digital sales, so actual retail sales are 1 million minus whatever many digital copies that were sold. It is extremely difficult to pinpoint the percentage of people who go digital-only, but MCV cited a study that found only 10% of UK gamers go digital-only. If we assume 10% of Forza 5's sales is digital, then 900K retail copies were sold as of the beginning of February. That would be approximately a 150K overtrack. If it's 15% digital, 200K overtrack. And this is why VGC's software numbers are very questionable.
There is also zero proof that is has sold over 2 million. We lack evidence that stronglys suggests for or against. I have not heard Microsoft making such an announcement nor has it made a statement like, "The Forza series has sold over XX million". If we get at least the latter, then we could estimate Forza 5's sales. Just because there is no proof for either direction doesn't mean you assume the positive. While MS released a Forza 5 bundle, it got overshadowed by Titanfall in March and the Kinectless SKU in June. It did not sell well in any of the other months of 2014 until September. However, the uptick in sales was attributed to Destiny.
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The article says over one million by the beging of February it doesn't give any specific numbers. Also again there is zero proof that it hasn't sold over two million copies already. Shortly before Horzion 2 came out before the game got its free weekend the leaderboards where over 2 million already. So including digital copies it was close to two million almost a year ago already.
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The "there is no proof for X, so therefore the opposite of X is true" argument is not a valid one. Stop using the Appeal to Ignorance fallacy. You also need to prove that each individual in the leaderboard has his/her own Forza 5 copy, whether it be physical or digital. The information available to us is not conclusive enough, though VGC might have overtracked Forza 5's physical sales based on my reasoning in my previous comment.
I'm not saying Forza 5 didn't sell over 2 million, but I'm not saying it did either. If I were to take a wild guess, it has sold just over 2 million including digital sales.
