I expect to mostly still buy physical and really only download PSN+ "free" games and indies. I was sorely tempted to buy Bloodborne off PSN with it being at a considerable discount. But just the thought of downloading 27GB at our internet speeds is offputting. So I will wait a bit more to get Bloodborne physical a bit later.
So for me I think a 1TB HDD will be enough, even if some game data management will be needed. I expect for the most part it would mean juggling the game data for physical game installs, and I would be able to leave the downloaded games alone.
Unfortunately I only have a 500GB and I haven't looked into the whole external HDD back up and replace HDD thing. When last I tried to back up my PS3 HDD I got hit with copyright prohibitions which means I could not back up my PS3 HDD properly, and I gave up the idea of putting in bigger HDD on my PS3. I assume the same copyright restrictions will apply to backing up a PS4 HDD, which makes HDD swapping a bit annoying. Pretty dumb when Xb one and Wii U both allow external game storage and streaming from the external HDD.
“The fundamental cause of the trouble is that in the modern world the stupid are cocksure while the intelligent are full of doubt.” - Bertrand Russell
"When the power of love overcomes the love of power, the world will know peace."
Jimi Hendrix







